Fossil Energy – Norway
Norway’s offshore oil and gas production is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, but a sharp decline in investment is signalling a slowdown in activity and a gradual fall in output later this decade, the country’s energy regulator said on Thursday.
After several years of heavy spending driven by large-scale developments, investment momentum is now easing as many major projects near completion. New developments coming on stream are generally smaller, marking a shift in the structure of Norway’s offshore industry, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).
“The production plateau is expected to last until 2027, and then output will start to taper off,” said Torgeir Stordal, head of the NOD.
Norway’s total oil and gas production is forecast to remain close to 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) this year, before declining to just under 3.5 million boed by 2030, the regulator’s updated outlook shows.
Investment spending, including exploration, is projected to fall to 256 billion Norwegian crowns ($25.5 billion) in 2026, down from 275 billion crowns last year on an inflation-adjusted basis. By 2030, spending is expected to drop further to 209 billion crowns—around 24% below last year’s level.
The shrinking pipeline of new projects is already being felt across the supply chain, with some service companies beginning to downsize. Industry activity is also shifting away from large greenfield developments toward smaller subsea tie-back projects.
“There will be fewer stand-alone developments and much more subsea activity,” Stordal said to Reuters. “That will have a clear impact on the supply industry.”
Together, the trends indicate a calmer period for Norway’s offshore oil and gas industry as it approaches the end of the decade.
