General – Middle East
U.S. President Donald Trump recently warned that NATO could face a difficult future if European countries do not support efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Rob de Wijk, founder of the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, described the remarks as ‘blackmail’ and said they risk undermining European security. In a column for the Dutch newspaper Trouw, he argued that such pressure benefits Russia.
De Wijk wrote that coercive tactics have become a feature of the current U.S. approach. He said Trump appears primarily focused on strengthening American power, with objectives that include securing access to raw materials and energy resources, as well as advancing a nationalist agenda that differs from prevailing views in much of Europe.
According to De Wijk, these positions may appeal to parts of the political right, including in the Netherlands. However, he cautioned that current policies could contribute to heightened global instability.
Some economists, he noted, have warned of a potential economic downturn that could exceed the scale of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. He pointed to a combination of factors, including a possible artificial intelligence market bubble, ongoing conflicts affecting energy and commodity supplies, and geopolitical tensions that could escalate, for example, in relation to Taiwan. Such developments, he suggested, could disrupt global semiconductor production.
De Wijk also raised concerns about decision-making processes, stating that Trump has been known to rely on a limited circle of advisers while excluding broader expert input, which he said may increase the risk of miscalculation.
Referring to tensions involving Iran, De Wijk said analysts have long highlighted the country’s development of asymmetric warfare strategies, including maritime tactics dating back to the 1980s. He noted that, according to military assessments, relatively small-scale actions could disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with limited options for prevention.
European leaders, he wrote, were therefore justified in declining to provide support, adding that the situation does not directly constitute a European conflict.
He further argued that Iran’s internal power structures are designed to withstand external pressure, making rapid change unlikely.
In conclusion, De Wijk called for a reassessment of Europe’s relationship with the United States within NATO and for greater economic autonomy. He also suggested that Trump’s supporters should reconsider the broader implications of his policies.
